Matchup Breakdown: Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem

6 months ago, NO one saw this fight on the horizon. Alistair Overeem was not even in the UFC, he was the Strikeforce Heavyweight champ, and was in the middle of the Strikeforce HW Grand Prix tournament. It was May 12th, 2011, that Brock Lesnar announced he was not able to fight against Junior Dos Santos for the #1 UFC HW contender spot. His diverticulitis had flared up again, and this time he was going to have surgery. No one knew when, or if, Brock Lesnar would ever compete in the UFC again. Certainly, no one thought Alistair Overeem would be fighting Brock Lesnar in a 5 round main event at UFC 141 on December 30th, 2011 in Las Vegas....and the winner is to be given the first shot at Junior Dos Santos' UFC Heavyweight belt.
Things seemed to go even more downhill in July. On the 17th, Strikeforce announced Alistair Overeem was being removed from the Heavyweight Tournament, due to the fact he claimed he would not be ready for the next round of fights. On the 29th, he was released from Strikeforce completely. Amazing! Strikeforce releases Alistair, their Heavyweight Champion (since November 2007!), someone alive and well in the HW tournament, completely. One would think if Strikeforce, owned by the same group who owns the UFC, would drop Overeem, then he would also not work for the UFC. After a change in heart on the UFC's part and eventually a management change by Alistair Overeem, a contract was signed on the 6th of September for him to fight in the UFC.
Although he held the Strikeforce HW title for nearly 4 years, he only defended it once, against Brett Rogers. Brett's probably the most famous for punching.....his wife. Overeem's fought 9 other times, against what most people consider questionalble competition. Directly after winning the Strikeforce HW title, he fought Lee Tae-Hyun (1-2). He also fought James Thompson. Yeah, the guy who's ear was burst by Kimbo Slice on national TV. That said, his most recent win was over Fabricio Werdum, by way of decision in the Strikeforce HW GP semis. Unfortunately, that fight was as entertaining as folding laundry. Overeem has always been a striker, and has had success in K-1, winning the 2010 World Grand Prix. Against Lesnar, he would look to stand as much as possible, trying to stop Brock's takedown attempts and see if Brock still really, really hates to get hit in the face.
Ok, I hate Brock Lesnar. I felt there was no way to go about it than to just say it. Luckily for us both, I hate him enough to want to see him lose in fights. When he went down with diverticulitis and decided to have surgery, I was pissed because it would mean some time before I got to see someone else punch his face. See, I didn't really think that Randy Couture would beat him, nor did I think Mir could the second time, nor Carwin, but I was excited at each chance. When Carwin floored Brock, I was shouting "let him up! let him up!!" - I wanted Shane to punch Brock's face more.
Stylistically, this fight is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. If Brock can avoid eating a punch or kick on the way in, he should be able to pound Overeem out on the ground. If Overeem can keep the fight standing, his chances are very good. The issue is, I don't think that Alistair can keep Brock from taking him down. I almost hope that Brock has been doing a lot of live sparring and letting guys punch him, so he can take more than one good shot on the feet without getting afraid, it would make this, and any other fight of his better. Whether he has or hasn't, I give the edge to Lesnar. He was the 2000 NCAA Heavyweight wrestling champion. Overeem has only competed as a heavyweight since mid 2007, and many, including myself, think his size is at least partially due to steroids.
RDV: Lesnar over Overoid, round 1 TKO.

I would usually put a video here, but no one would ever come back to read this blog if I put footage of the Overeem v. Werdum fight. So, here's a video of the man the winner faces, Junior Dos Santos (notice what he did to Werdum?) :